30 photos
Prospect analysis

4460 W Us Highway 23

Asking$885,000

Cheboygan, MI · 4 bd · 5 ba · 4,300 sq ft · Built 1997

Underwritten as a short-term rental

Lake Huron waterfront log home with 4 bedrooms, 5 baths, and strong short-term rental income potential.

This 4,300 sq ft property offers panoramic lake views and a spacious, lodge-style layout, positioned between Mackinac City and Cheboygan. High-confidence underwriting projects robust cash flow and a 19.4% cash-on-cash return, assuming moderate occupancy and expense ratios.

Est. ADR
$551
Est. occupancy
58%
Gross rev / mo
$9,721
Cash-on-cash
19.4%

Airfolio market estimates · 20% down · detail in the underwriting panel.

Investment thesis

This property stands out as a large, purpose-built waterfront retreat with authentic log construction and expansive gathering spaces, making it well-suited for group-oriented short-term rental demand in Northern Michigan. The combination of high bedroom and bathroom count, direct Lake Huron frontage, and proximity to regional attractions supports a premium ADR and above-average occupancy assumptions. The underwriting metrics indicate strong projected cash flow and returns, but these are sensitive to continued demand for high-end STRs in the area and operational execution. The primary caveat is the need to confirm ongoing STR regulatory permissibility and to validate that projected occupancy and ADR are sustainable given local competition and seasonality.

Highlights

  • 4 bedrooms and 5 bathrooms across 4,300 sq ft
  • Direct Lake Huron frontage with panoramic views
  • Built in 1997 with dramatic log construction and stone fireplace
  • Multi-level decks and finished walkout lower level
  • Listed at $885,000, near high-confidence AVM estimates
  • Estimated STR ADR of $551 and occupancy rate of 58%
  • Projected monthly cash flow of $2,862 and 19.4% cash-on-cash return (high-confidence underwriting)
  • Recent sale in 2019 at $499,000

Risks

STR permitting: verify local ordinance and zoning allow short-term rental at this address before offering. Not verified.
STR regulations and permitting should be verified for this location
Returns are sensitive to occupancy and ADR assumptions, especially in a seasonal market
High-end inventory may face limited buyer pool and competition from newer or more updated properties
Operational complexity due to property size and waterfront maintenance requirements
Expense ratio and management assumptions should be validated for accuracy

Market

Cheboygan, MI is a Northern Michigan market with appeal for vacationers seeking waterfront experiences and proximity to Mackinac Island and the Straits. The property type—a large, log-constructed lakefront home—caters to group and family rentals, which can command premium rates in peak seasons. The market supports STR activity, but demand is likely to be highly seasonal, and performance will depend on effective marketing and guest experience. Confidence in income projections is high given the alignment of valuation anchors and rental estimates, but ongoing market monitoring is advised.

Neighborhood

The property is situated on a sizable lot with direct Lake Huron frontage, offering privacy and scenic views that are attractive to vacationing groups. The area between Mackinac City and Cheboygan is known for its natural beauty and recreational appeal, though detailed guest demand signals are limited. The residential character is likely quiet and rural, with guest appeal driven primarily by the waterfront setting and access to regional attractions. Conclusions about neighborhood-specific demand are moderate-confidence due to limited granular data.

Underwriting notes

At a list price of $885,000, underwriting projects an estimated STR ADR of $551 and a 58% occupancy rate, resulting in monthly expected income of $9,721 and cash flow of $2,862. The expense ratio is modeled at 25%, with no management fee assumed, and financing is based on a 20% down payment and 6.4% interest rate. The resulting 19.4% cash-on-cash return is attractive for the segment, but is contingent on achieving modeled occupancy and ADR. Investors should focus diligence on validating these assumptions, confirming STR legality, and assessing operational costs for a property of this scale and vintage.

Value context

Airfolio est.
Modeled value
$885,000
Modeled range
$801,800$886,200
Asking
$885,000
Asking sits within the modeled range.

Solid: value history · Dashed: 24-month projection with confidence band. Airfolio estimates, not appraisals.

As of Sep 2, 2026 · Modeled from record, listing, and market data. An estimate, not an appraisal.

Sales history

DateEventPrice
Jul 2019Sold$499,000

Tax history

YearAssessed valueTaxes
1970$243,500$4,146

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Figures are Airfolio market estimates modeled from listing, record, and market data, not investment advice · Analysis Sep 2, 2026.
Airfolio is a product of Trusty Labs, Inc. · CA DRE #01527508

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Airfolio is a product of Trusty Labs, Inc., a licensed California real estate brokerage · CA DRE #01527508. Concierge introductions to agents, lenders, and property managers are referrals, and Trusty Labs may receive referral fees. Revenue and return figures are Airfolio market estimates from public records, listing data, and market modeling, not offers, appraisals, or investment advice. Verify all figures independently.
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