30 photos
Prospect analysis
5404 & 5410 North Shore Dr
Asking$929,000
Duluth, MN · 4 bd · 2 ba · 2,363 sq ft · Built 1992
Underwritten as a short-term rental
Lake Superior waterfront 4-bedroom home with adjacent vacant parcel and strong short-term rental income potential.
This property offers direct lake access, privacy, and a rare combination of a main residence plus an additional lot, supporting both guest appeal and future flexibility. High-confidence underwriting projects robust cash flow and above-average cash-on-cash returns, though the price point requires sustained STR performance.
Est. ADR
$578
Est. occupancy
62%
Gross rev / mo
$10,900
Cash-on-cash
22.8%
Airfolio market estimates · 20% down · detail in the underwriting panel.
Investment thesis
This Lake Superior waterfront property stands out for its direct shoreline access, 4-bedroom layout, and inclusion of an adjacent vacant parcel, making it well-suited for high-ADR short-term rental strategies targeting families and groups seeking privacy and natural amenities. The underwriting projects strong monthly income and a notably high cash-on-cash return, supported by high-confidence valuation and rental estimates. The location just outside Duluth offers a blend of seclusion and proximity to city amenities, enhancing guest appeal. The primary caveat is the premium purchase price, which demands consistent occupancy and operational execution to achieve projected returns. Investors should also confirm STR regulations and assess ongoing maintenance needs typical of waterfront properties.
Highlights
- 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across 2,363 sqft
- Direct Lake Superior waterfront with deeded access to rock shoreline and gravel beach
- Includes adjacent vacant parcel for privacy or future use
- Built in 1992 with mature landscaping and fencing for privacy
- High-confidence valuation with Zestimate and Airfolio estimates in close agreement
- Estimated STR ADR of $578 and expected occupancy rate of 62%
- Projected monthly STR income of $10,900 and cash-on-cash return of 22.8%
- City sewer and convenient access to Duluth amenities
Risks
STR permitting: verify local ordinance and zoning allow short-term rental at this address before offering. Not verified.
STR regulations and permitting requirements should be verified for this location
Returns are sensitive to occupancy and nightly rate assumptions, especially at this price tier
Waterfront properties may require higher ongoing maintenance and insurance costs
Seasonal demand swings in Duluth could impact occupancy and income
Higher-end inventory may face a smaller buyer pool on resale
Market
Duluth, MN is a regional hub with strong seasonal tourism driven by Lake Superior and outdoor recreation, supporting demand for short-term rentals, particularly larger homes with waterfront access. The property’s size and location position it well for premium STR strategies, though the market is subject to seasonal fluctuations and regulatory oversight. High-confidence valuation and rental estimates provide a solid basis for underwriting, but the elevated price point means returns are more sensitive to market shifts.
Neighborhood
Located along North Shore Drive just outside Duluth, this property offers a blend of privacy, natural beauty, and proximity to city amenities. The direct lake access and mature landscaping enhance guest appeal, particularly for families and groups seeking a retreat experience. While detailed neighborhood demand signals are limited, the combination of seclusion and convenience is likely to attract STR guests at a moderate to high confidence level.
Underwriting notes
At a $929,000 purchase price, underwriting projects a monthly STR income of $10,900, with expenses estimated at $7,374 and expected cash flow of $3,526 per month. The estimated ADR of $578 and 62% occupancy rate are based on high-confidence data and reflect the property’s premium positioning. The projected cash-on-cash return of 22.8% is attractive for this asset class, but is contingent on maintaining strong occupancy and operational efficiency. Key assumptions include a 20% down payment, 6.4% interest rate, and 25% expense ratio, with no management fee assumed; actual results may vary based on management approach and market conditions.
Value context
Airfolio est.Modeled value
$900,000
Modeled range
$839,705–$928,095
Asking
$929,000
Asking sits at the top of the modeled range.
Solid: value history · Dashed: 24-month projection with confidence band. Airfolio estimates, not appraisals.
As of Sep 2, 2026 · Modeled from record, listing, and market data. An estimate, not an appraisal.
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