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Prospect analysisArchived
9051 Lacy Rd
Asking$340,000
Graford · Graford, TX · 3 bd · 1 ba · 1,268 sq ft · Built 1965
Underwritten as a short-term rental
Waterfront 3-bedroom cottage on Possum Kingdom Lake with high-confidence short-term rental income projections and no HOA restrictions.
This property offers deeded waterfront access, a private dock, and is positioned in an area with established vacation rental activity. Underwriting metrics indicate strong cash flow and a high cash-on-cash return, though the property’s age and single-bath layout warrant diligence.
Est. ADR
$212
Est. occupancy
58%
Gross rev / mo
$3,740
Cash-on-cash
19.5%
Airfolio market estimates · 20% down · detail in the underwriting panel.
Investment thesis
This lakefront property is well-suited for investors seeking a short-term rental asset in a recreational market with minimal regulatory barriers. The combination of deeded waterfront, private dock, and proximity to local attractions like Rocker B Ranch supports guest demand. High-confidence underwriting projects robust cash flow and a 19.5% cash-on-cash return, making it attractive for yield-focused buyers. The primary caveat is the property’s 1965 construction and single bathroom, which may limit appeal to larger groups and could require ongoing maintenance. Investors should confirm the durability of recent improvements and STR permissibility during diligence.
Highlights
- Deeded waterfront on Possum Kingdom Lake
- Private dock (approx. 3 years old)
- 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, 1,268 sqft
- Recent upgrades: mini-split HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing
- All-electric home with metal roof
- No HOA or known STR restrictions
- Estimated STR ADR: $212, expected occupancy: 58%
- Projected monthly cash flow: $1,104, cash-on-cash return: 19.5%
Risks
STR permitting: verify local ordinance and zoning allow short-term rental at this address before offering. Not verified.
Older home (built 1965) may require additional maintenance
Single bathroom could limit guest capacity and rental appeal
Returns are sensitive to occupancy and nightly rate assumptions
STR regulations and local enforcement should be verified
Seasonal demand swings typical for lake markets may impact income
Higher-end pricing may narrow the resale buyer pool
Market
Graford, TX, and the Possum Kingdom Lake area are established recreational destinations with a mix of full-time residents and vacationers. The waterfront segment is attractive for short-term rental strategies, especially where regulatory barriers are low. The market supports premium pricing for well-located, deeded waterfront properties, but demand can be seasonal and sensitive to broader economic trends.
Neighborhood
The property is situated in a quiet cove with direct lake access, offering a peaceful setting away from heavy boat traffic. Neighboring properties are reportedly used as vacation rentals, suggesting guest demand for similar offerings. While detailed location-specific demand signals are limited, the combination of waterfront access and proximity to local attractions supports moderate to high confidence in guest appeal.
Underwriting notes
At a $340,000 purchase price, underwriting projects a monthly STR income of $3,740, with expenses estimated at $2,636 and expected cash flow of $1,104 per month. The model assumes a 58% occupancy rate and $212 ADR, with a 25% expense ratio and 20% down payment at a 6.4% interest rate. The resulting 19.5% cash-on-cash return is attractive, but is sensitive to occupancy and rate assumptions. The high-confidence projections are grounded in comparable STR performance, but investors should confirm the durability of recent upgrades and validate STR permissibility during diligence.
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